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Chase Horsman's avatar

"One of the more insidious things that technology is doing now is it’s saving us time, then quietly spending it for us. It does this by expanding what is now possible and what is now expected of us.”

Scott Wilkinson's avatar

Great post...BUT...your description of how things will accelerate is incredibly narrow because it revolves around one assumption: that the only things that matter are the changing job market and how to get ahead in the job market. Yes, the job market will change dramatically...we think. There are a huge number of other issues facing us as a planetary species, starting with climate change. Extreme weather and associated events are going to drive change that will dwarf AI—and AI won't be able to save us.

Inequality will continue to grow, and continue to destabilize our nation and the world. Finite natural resources will continue to shrink, forcing dramatic and difficult changes. Severe water shortages will have huge impacts in parts of the country. As a result of all these pressures, geopolitics will leave the world in turmoil. And anyone who believes that the white-collar job market will just keep rolling merrily along on its own little accelerated path (with tidy answers for what will work and what won't, and what jobs will exist and which won't) is deluded. (Not saying you believe that Scott B.)

Things are going to change dramatically across every aspect of our lives, our health, our politics–everything. Predictions about the job market, reskilling, niching, whatever...appear cute compared with the colossal changes that will happen *outside* the job market. And the job market will not remain unimpacted by these changes. It will bend, be torn, morph and regress in ways we can't even begin to predict. The simple truth is, nobody—not Silicon Valley digerati, not oligarchs, not politicians, not even scientists—knows what's going to happen as tipping point after tipping point is passed.

Given all this, I'm not 100% sure that "narrowing down" is the best strategy. I'm not a believer in total apocalypse...but I still think it's worth bearing in mind that if the sh*t REALLY hits the fan (as preppers like to say), 95% of all Silicon Valley knowledge will instantly become utterly useless. And all that will matter is...do you know how to farm? Work metal over a forge? Sew? Hunt? Build a house with your hands? Stitch someone up?

Sorry for the apocalyptic-sounding comment, LOL. But as I read this good article, I could not silence the voice in my head that kept screaming "This is myopic!"

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